Agriculture Today - February 2009

Fresno County 2009 Water Outlook: Dry conditions cause concern

Fresno County’s surface water supply doesn’t come from any one source—what happens in the Sierras, in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and at Shasta Reservoir can impact how surface water is allocated and managed in Fresno County. Not to mention, all this can impact groundwater through recharge opportunities and drought-level pumping of the aquifer.

Much can happen to change current conditions depending on some well-placed snow and rain events for the remainder of February and into March. In the meantime, here’s a brief and very preliminary recap of what 2009’s water year may look like as of Agriculture Today’s deadline:

"We need to look at ways to provide them [farm employees on the west side] jobs. They want nothing but an opportunity to make a living," said Assemblyman Juan Arambula. "we need a good adequate and affordable water supply for people, farms and the environment. this is a good chance to reconsider how we look at protecting our water supply," Arambula said at a Feb. 9 water rally in Fresno.

Statewide

The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) second snow survey of the winter, conducted in late-January, indicated the Sierra snowpack was just 61 percent of normal for the date. Last year at the same time, the snowpack was 111 percent of normal, but the dry spring that followed resulted in a second consecutive dry year.

DWR Director Lester Snow says that these results combined with the low precipitation indicate that we are heading for a third dry year. “We may be at the start of the worst California drought in modern history. It’s imperative for Californians to conserve water immediately at home and in their businesses,” Snow said.

State Meteorologist Elisa Lynn estimates another 20-30 inches of rain – and upwards of 20-30 feet of snow – are needed by April 1 to reach average runoff.

The Friant-Kern Canal makes its way south near Orange Cove, providing water to farms and rural communities. Uncertainity with this year's water supply could impact just how much water is available for water districts that have contracts for Friant water.

Local conditions – East Side

In the Kings River watershed, snow surveys were conducted the end of January by CA Department of Water Resources and PG&E, and the Kings River Water Association. The recent rain and snow events of early-February show a more promising outlook for the Kings River service area.

KRWA Hydrographer Ed Dittenbir said the DWR Feb. 1 forecast for the Kings River projects the run-off to be 72 percent of the normal run-off from April-July, assuming there is average precipitation for the remainder of the rainy season.

The snow sensors in the Kings River watershed recorded 3.5-inches of precipitation during the recent Feb. 4-9 weather events, said Dittenbir. “These storms are what we need to help sustain the 72 percent projection and to help that out a little bit,” said Dittenbir.

On the San Joaquin River watershed, which serves Friant water contractors, including the City of Fresno, Fresno Irrigation District, and some other smaller districts in Fresno County, the conditions are dry, but improving with each storm event in February.   

As of Feb. 10, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reports precipitation in the Upper San Joaquin River Basin was 21.89 inches at Huntington Lake. Current storage at Millerton Lake is about 250,412 acre-feet (AF), 48 percent of its 520,500 AF capacity.

A rally was held at Fresno City Hall on Feb. 9 to voice objections to disparaging comments about farm workers who may lose jobs made by local environmentalist Lloyd Carter in an interview with KMPH-TV 26 at a recent water debate. Farm workers, elected officials, farmers and farm organizations attended the rally. Speakers emphasized the need to protect farm jobs and called for more water storage and less environmental restrictions on pumping water from the Delta.

Local conditions- West Side

Extremely dry conditions and implementation of a series of environmental regulations and pumping restrictions have created unprecedented forecasts for water users on the west side of Fresno County and the Valley.

Although the official announcement for the federal Central Valley Project water allocation won’t happen until Feb. 20, growers within the Westlands Water District were told in late-January to expect a 0 allocation. Unless conditions change, this is the first time in the history of the District that it will not be able to deliver its CVP contract allocation to its water users.

“In reviewing the current hydrologic conditions and projections for Delta pumping, our projections are for a 0 supply. We don’t see a change in circumstances, absent a change in the hydrology,” Westlands General Manager Tom Birmingham told growers at a District meeting last month. “It’s incredibly dry.”

Ron Milligan, who oversees CVP operations for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, said, “We are planning for the worst and praying for the best. We have a long ways to go just to get to average [precipitation]. The last 11-1/2 months have made the watersheds very dry and they just soak it up.”

Milligan recapped the current storage levels in the federal reservoirs (all currently below 1977 drought levels) and because of the dry conditions in the watersheds, run-off and inflow projections into the reservoirs are not encouraging. “The run-off is the key to how things will shake out,” he added.

Farmers in Westlands have “farmed through” dry conditions before, most recently in 1976-77 and 1991-92. But what has exacerbated the difficulty this year is the increased demand over the years from the State Water Project, which shares storage with the CVP at San Luis Reservoir and provides water to southern San Joaquin Valley and the urban southland.  Milligan said these increased demands have used excess water that USBR used to get.

In addition, the cumulative effects of several environmental-related regulations and legal judgments have basically re-allocated water away from other uses to the environment. Westlands’ Birmingham listed the provisions in place now since the 1991 drought, including the D-1641 water rights decision that called for additional releases to benefit anadromous fish species; the Bay-Delta Accord affecting water quality; Biological Opinions on several Endangered Species Act-listed fish species; and the CVP Improvement Act signed into law in 1992 and reallocated water away from irrigated agriculture and other CVP purposes to go to environmental uses. The cumulative impact from each regulation adds to the reductions to irrigated agriculture in the Valley and greatly reduces the flexibility of the Bureau and the State to operate the projects.

“We are at 0 because of environmental regulations that are in place now that weren’t there before,” said Westlands Board President Jean Sagouspe. “We’re trying to solve the problem and we’re trying to do all that we can. But the cards are now stacked up against us and it’s not looking good. Until everyone feels the pain, things won’t change,” Sagouspe said, expressing frustration with the lack of political leadership on the state and federal levels to ward-off the cumulative effects from excessive regulations.

Options for Westlands water users include the delivery of about 215,000 AF of water to be rescheduled from last year into the new water year, which begins March 1. Because of the current low water levels stored in the federal share of San Luis Reservoir, the Bureau is working with the District to avoid any losses of that carryover water that is entitled to Westlands growers. Likewise, the District is looking to facilitate water transfers from throughout the state, but the dry conditions are not encouraging, said Birmingham. 

On the policy side, Birmingham said the Governor is expected to announce a continuation of the statewide drought declaration from last year. Efforts are underway to urge the State Water Resources Control Board to call an immediate hearing to review current conditions and the possibility of emergency relaxation of some of the environmental standards that currently preclude or reduce Delta pumping.

The Fresno County Board of Supervisors recently approved a drought-related resolution updated from last year’s local declaration, and will be asking for a relaxation of environmental standards as well. U.C. economics experts say because of the growing water shortage, the Valley could lose about 40,000 agriculture jobs. Last year, more than 200,000 acres of fertile farmland throughout the Valley were idled because of water shortages. An empty field doesn’t have the same visual impact as a boarded-up factory, but it has the same consequence – very real consequences on people who depend on those fields for their livelihood.

Exchange Contractors outlook

It appears that water users north of Westlands also may be impacted. Although not official, the latest inflow projections into Shasta Reservoir (as of Jan. 23) indicate the inflow deficiency criteria would come into play unless conditions change, limiting the amount of surface water the San Joaquin River Exchange Contractors and refuges may receive. The Exchange Contractors, which covers 240,000 acres in western Fresno, Merced, Madera and Stanislaus counties, receive surface water from the Delta-Mendota Canal (stored at Shasta Reservoir) in exchange for the water they had received from the San Joaquin River prior to the construction of Friant Dam.

With the current inflow into Shasta, the Contractors are looking at it being declared a “Critical Year” under the 90 percent exceedence (with Shasta inflow currently at about 2.92-million acre-feet), however under a 50 percent exceedence estimate (inflow at estimated 4.60-million acre-feet), it will become a “non-critical year.” Inflows into Shasta Reservoir will need to be 3.3-million acre-feet in order to be declared “non-critical” and to receive a full allocation. If it is declared a “Critical Year,” the Exchange Contractors’ water supply could be about 30 percent less than normal during the April 1-Oct. 31 irrigation season.

As of Jan. 23, Shasta Reservoir had lower accumulated inflow than 1977's driest year on record -- 856,000 acre-feet vs.1977's 864,000 acre-feet, reports the state meteorologist.

Because of long-held historic water rights to the San Joaquin River, the Exchange Contract districts do have entitlement to San Joaquin River water to make up any shortfalls. USBR’s Milligan said the Bureau may be making “a call on Friant to meet” the Exchange Contractors’ contract. “We have not been there before and we’re going to have to work through all that,” he added.